Call for ‘Marshall Plan’ approach for SMRs

The London based think tank New Nuclear Watch Institute has called for a Marshall Plan scale approach to help bring small modular reactors (SMRs) to the market.

In a new report the Institute describes SMRs as vital for achieving net zero by 2050 but while the concept has been gaining traction across the world for quite a while, overall progress in the sector over the last 10 to 15 years has been modest.

Moreover the emerging sector faces a complex interplay of technological, economic and geopolitical factors that influence and to some extent constrain the technology adoption and scalability.

Market prospects

An estimated 70 SMR designs are believed to be in development currently, with potential market segments including both on-grid and off-grid power supply, advanced co-generation and transport applications.

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While optimistic forecasts have suggested that the global SMR fleet could reach around 350GWe by 2050, the Institute’s base case scenario estimates it “more realistically” in the region of 150-170GWe.

The Institute anticipates that few SMRs will start operating before 2030 and for the first wave of deployments to occur around 2030-2035, predominantly featuring light water generation III+ designs.

Those projects are likely to face delays averaging 1-3 years, along with significant cost overruns compared to initial schedules and estimates.

Advanced (generation IV) SMRs, despite ambitious targets, are likely to encounter more substantial delays due to more complex licensing, supply chain and fuel supply issues.

While some demonstration units may still come online by 2030-2035, full-scale first-of-a-kind deployment and subsequent series factory manufacturing are more likely to materialise closer to 2040.

The Institute also states that if current trends persist, in the context of regulatory and geopolitical fragmentation, Russian and Chinese designs are poised to dominate nearly with 40% of the global SMR fleet by capacity.

For example Russia’s Rosatom, with pre-selected designs including the Gen III+ RITM-200 and Shelf-M and Gen IV SBVR-100, is set to replicate its success in large reactor exports. Supported by government subsidies and export finance, and offering a ‘plant-as-a-service’ model, Rosatom is expected to surpass 7GWe of operational SMR capacity by 2040.

China, set to launch the world’s first onshore SMR unit with Linglong One (ACP100), will see this design, along with Hualong One (HPR1000), as a flagship export. Backed by state support, China’s SMR designs are expected to comprise 6.5GWe by 2040, scaling up to over 30GW by 2050, with export priorities along the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Support for SMR programmes

The report suggests that to compete with Russia and China, OECD countries should consider equivalent support for their SMR programmes.

Recommendations are:
● Supply side support should be complemented with strong demand-side incentives, targeting priority applications like coal-fired power station replacement and diesel generation replacement for larger off-grid customers.

● All remaining restrictions should be removed on SMR-based clean energy solutions by international development institutions along with export finance options being streamlined and international trade advocacy services offered.

● Nuclear regulators should be encouraged to collaborate in developing at least partial common standards, with mutual recognition of pre-licensing design and factory certification for SMRs, as well as to share knowledge, information and expert networks, particularly regarding innovative technologies.

● Firms should be encouraged to form competitive global alliances combining vendors, potential international plant operators and key supply chain partners capable of competing with Russian and Chinese national champions in the ‘plant-as-a-service’ lifecycle energy solutions segment.

“The world needs an initiative of the magnitude of the Marshall Plan to help the most carbon intensive regions replace their ageing coal fired plants with SMRs,” says NNWI Chairman Tim Yeo.

“Policy support for SMR technologies must be ramped up and carefully targeted to ensure we meet our mid-century net zero goals and facilitate timely completion of the clean energy transition."

Top SMR projects

The report also identifies the 25 top projects that, due to a combination of business and technological performance drivers, are most likely to be deployed and secure a significant market share by mid-century.

In the light of intense internal and external competition and the limited size of the market, first mover advantage will be critical, with rapid series deployment driving success in the SMR market, the report emphasises.

Late entrants, even those with more advanced technology, are likely to find it harder to scale up.

First movers with demonstration plants expected to become operational around 2030, in addition to the Russian RITM-200 and China’s Linglong One, are NuScale’s VOYGR and GE-Hitachi’s BWRX-300 boiling water reactor.

Other designs with deployment prospects closer to 2035 include the Rolls-Royce SMR in UK, EDF’s NUWARD project in France, the SMART SMR from KAERI and BANDI-60 from KEPCO in South Korea and Holtec’s SMR-300 and Westinghouse’s AP300 in the US.