Is all hope lost for climate ambitions under a Trump presidency?

Will Donald Trump’s leadership plunge the energy transition into disarray? The short answer is not quite. Georgina Hayden explains why.

With Donald Trump securing a second term as President, it’s easy to assume the worst for US climate change policy.

Trump’s climate scepticism is no secret: his withdrawal from the Paris Agreement during his first term and recent campaign promises to scrap offshore wind projects and cut clean energy funding under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) have left many renewable energy advocates bracing for impact.

But is it really all doom and gloom? Will Trump’s leadership completely derail the US’ climate ambitions, plunging the energy transition into disarray?

The short answer: not quite. While the pace of progress may slow, the broader momentum of climate action and renewable energy is unlikely to grind to a halt.

Have you read?
Octopus boss Greg Jackson says Trump victory is a warning over energy bills

In fact, there are compelling reasons to believe that the energy transition will continue, albeit with challenges.

Trump and renewable energy

The US renewable energy market of 2024 is vastly different from what it was when Trump first took office in 2017. Over the past seven years, renewables have grown from a supplementary energy source to an essential component of the electricity mix.

In 2023, renewables accounted for 22% of US electricity generation, surpassing coal and nuclear, and between January 2024 and June 2024, solar alone accounted for 77% of all new capacity additions.

This shift reflects a larger global trend. According to the International Energy Agency, investment in clean technologies globally in 2024 will be double that of coal, oil, and gas combined.

This isn't a sector the US administration can simply sideline without consequences. Halting progress would risk being sidelined from a booming global industry by other nations eager to capitalise on the green investment wave.

Even if Trump attempts to roll back Biden-era climate policies, legal frameworks like the Clean Air Act make significant reversals cumbersome.

His first administration learned this lesson the hard way, with nearly 85% of attempts to undo environmental regulations struck down in court.

Renewables have bipartisan support

The political environment that Trump will return to is significantly different from that in 2017, largely due to the transformative impact of the IRA.

This landmark legislation has directed billions of dollars into renewable energy initiatives across the US. Notably, an estimated 85% of these investments have gone to projects in Republican-led districts, highlighting the widespread, bipartisan economic benefits of the IRA.

This shift is especially striking in states historically reliant on coal. US coal power capacity, which peaked at 317,600 MW in 2011, is projected to fall to 175,000 MW in 2024 and 115,000 MW by 2030 - a 63.8% decline.

Renewable energy industry braces for ‘whipsaw’ after Trump win

The IRA’s tax credits and manufacturing incentives have accelerated this transition, bolstering supply chains for solar panels, batteries, and other renewable technologies, making clean energy a vital economic force, particularly in Red states.

Even if Trump attempts to weaken the IRA, the bipartisan benefits and industry momentum make a full reversal unlikely. The economic and political stakes of abandoning the energy transition are simply too high.

States and corporations driving the transition

Even with a sceptical federal administration, state-level policies and corporate sustainability commitments are keeping renewable energy growth on track. Many states have ambitious clean energy mandates, offering incentives and regulations that accelerate renewable deployment.

Meanwhile, corporations are increasingly prioritising sustainability, signing long-term contracts for renewable energy and investing heavily in green projects.

Global top clean tech market set to triple by 2035 says IEA

These efforts are driven by consumer demand, cost savings, and shareholder expectations—factors that operate independently of federal policy.

Together, these forces ensure that renewables will continue to grow, regardless of the Trump administration’s stance.

What’s next for US energy policy

Trump’s second term will likely bring changes, but a complete reversal of progress seems unlikely. Here’s what to watch for:

IRA modifications: Trump may target specific IRA provisions, such as grants and loans perceived as favouring renewables over fossil fuels. However, the widespread economic benefits of the Act, especially in Republican districts, make a full repeal politically risky.

Offshore wind in the crosshairs: Trump has criticised offshore wind as costly and harmful, promising to halt new developments. Yet, offshore wind has proven to be an economic boon, creating jobs in Republican-led states. His stance may soften as these benefits become harder to ignore.

Oil and gas expansion: Trump has pledged to expand drilling and ease LNG export limits. However, global market dynamics—not federal policies—primarily drive oil and gas prices, which in turn shape investment and exploration decisions.

Moreover, the IRA has provisions that benefit the oil and gas industry too, including subsidies for carbon capture, hydrogen, and biofuels. These incentives align with the sector’s long-term strategy to stay competitive in a low-carbon future.

Trump and the IRA

While Trump may favour fossil fuels, the clean energy transition is too far along to reverse. His focus on energy security and affordability could lead to policies boosting oil and gas, but renewables, now among the cheapest energy sources, also stand to benefit.

Investments under the IRA also align with Trump’s 'America First' agenda by reducing reliance on foreign supply chains.

State policies, corporate goals, and market trends all favour renewables. The energy transition will face challenges, but the real question isn’t whether it will continue—it’s how quickly and under what conditions.