Report predicts many US solar and wind projects won’t make it

Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, an energy-focused SaaS company, has released a new report assessing the impact of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) following its signing into law.

In the report, EIR experts evaluate where resilient renewable capacity is most concentrated in the US queue and which solar and onshore wind developers are the most exposed.

“We define resilient projects as those with before-tax levelized cost of energy (LCOEs) that are lower than prevailing power and renewable energy credit (REC) prices. These competitive LCOEs can be achieved without the support of tax credits,” observed EIR Analyst Corianna Mah. “In our analysis, we estimate the top three largest renewable portfolios each have less than 30% of resilient queued capacity.”

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“We expect development activity to shift toward states with renewable portfolio standard targets like Arizona, Ohio, and others, where stronger REC prices and policy support can still underpin project economics and long-term offtake power purchase agreements (PPAs),” Mah added.

Key takeaways from the report:

• An estimated 30% of solar and 57% of onshore wind capacity are resilient to removing the investment and production tax credits. These projects can achieve a before-tax LCOE below their respective markets’ forward power and REC prices without relying on tax credits.
• Among the five states with the largest queued solar capacity, Texas, Illinois, and Indiana have the lowest shares of resilient projects — 6%, 40% and 41%. Nearly all queued solar projects in California and Arizona are resilient.
• Of the leading states by queued onshore wind capacity, Iowa, Illinois, and Texas have low shares of resilient projects between 21% and 61%. All evaluated wind projects in Montana and most in Oklahoma meet our resilience threshold.

Originally published by Paul Gerke on Factor This