Predictions 2026: ‘Green gridlock will hit every economy’
Kelvin Ross
Posted on: 13 January 2026
Taco Engelaar of climate tech company Neara explains the energy transition “paradox that’s playing out across the globe”.
“Green gridlock will hit every economy in 2026.” That’s the stark warning from Taco Engelaar, managing director at energy and climate technology company Neara.
He adds: “It’s a paradox we’re seeing play out across the globe: the faster a country moves on clean energy, the sooner it collides with transmission constraints.”
“Renewables grow, but grid capacity is left lacking, leading to lengthy connection queues and racking up huge costs in delayed projects and lost investment.”
He cites the International Energy Agency’s oft-repeated statement that “for every dollar spent on power generation, just half a dollar goes to the grid”, yet adds that while expanding infrastructure is one way to address this imbalance, “it's slow, expensive and often unpopular. Nations must prioritise freeing up capacity in existing systems to speed up connections and stop costs spiralling.”
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A recent analysis by Neara – which developed digital twin solutions for utilities – found that nearly three-quarters of energy distribution lines in the UK were operating below capacity.
“This is capacity that no country can afford to waste,” says Engelaar. “In 2026, hidden capacity must be the currency in which every economy invests."
Smart grid planning
He adds that this year, “smart grid planning will take centre stage. Right now, utilities are stuck between the grid and a hard place. Multiple competing challenges must be addressed, from lack of capacity and transmission constraints to resilience planning and failing assets.
“But resources are finite; not everything can be fixed at once. Working out which problems to prioritise and where to focus resources is a delicate balancing act.”
Engelaar says utilities need to be able to accurately analyse risk across their networks, enabling strategic, cost-adjusted decisions that deliver the biggest impact in the shortest amount of time.
“AI and physics-enabled modelling can unlock the level of insight needed to guide this type of decision-making. Enabling smart, data-led planning will ensure grid investment delivers tangible and demonstrable returns for systems and the consumers who depend on them.”
How digital twins can unlock untapped capacity in Europe’s grids
