Swedish hydropower assets hold 4000MW capacity potential - study

Significant potential exists to increase capacity and balancing from existing Swedish hydropower plants, according to study findings from engineering advisory firm AFRY.

The study, conducted on behalf of the Swedish Association of Engineers, shows that Sweden has up to 4000MW of capacity to unlock from existing hydropower assets - that's equivalent to 3.5 average nuclear reactors.

The study is particularly of interest as predictions see Sweden's power demand doubling by 2045 in light of electrification to spur industrial decarbonisation.

Currently, hydropower accounts for 40% of generation capacity in Sweden with around 2000 plants operational. And while much of the recent focus has been on developing the country's wind power, AFRY's study shows hydropower has an increasingly important contribution to make in terms of baseload generation and balancing of intermittency.

To maximise this contribution, three options exist to increase capacity of existing hydropower assets including; full or partial upgrade of the turbine, upgrade of the power unit or new additional power units.

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Expanding hydropower - opportunities and challenges

Marcus Dingle, manager at AFRY indicated that one of the main opportunities of unlocking greater hydropower capacity, is that Sweden could potentially further unlock greater onshore wind capacity - up to 1200MW in fact.

When it comes to wind and hydropower "there's symbiosis between them," according to Dingle, with hydropower providing the necessary balancing to support wind power installations.

However, Swedish hydropower is facing some challenges.

The sector is undergoing reassessment of permits related to the EU Water Framework Directive and according to AFRY, this is creating uncertainty for the industry about future potential and the negative impact of stricter requirements.

The sector also presents profitability challenges for project owners, as well as uncertainty regarding power sector revenues.

Costs of increasing hydropower capacity

Sofia Bengtsson Ekström, senior consultant at AFRY, provided details regarding the cost of these projects.

Based on analysed project data, AFRY estimates the cost to increase hydropower capacity at about €1.3 - 3.2 million/MW ($1.3 million - 3.3 million/MW) per project, although these costs are site specific and can have a wide range.

Modernising old power plants could see costs increase to €10.2 million/MW ($11 million/MW) and to develop the total capacity of 4000MW, AFRY suggests costs could total €5.3 - 13.1 billion ($5.4 billion - $13.4 billion).

There is a great deal of potential to be unlocked by removing bottlenecks in Sweden's largest rivers, as well as by renovating both large and small scale plants. However, AFRY emphasised that investments will be needed to achieve this and this will likely hinge on achieving permit renewals.

Stated Dingle: "It's a long process ahead of the Swedish hydropower industry..."