Grid the ‘decisive factor’ for Italy to reach net zero says GE Vernova

Italy is at risk of missing its 2030 net zero goals, although a clear roadmap with the power grid as a priority could deliver 2030 and 2050 targets, says GE Vernova in a new study.

According to the US-headquartered energy equipment company, whose technology provides approximately 25% of Italy’s power capacity, action needs to be taken now for the country to meet its targets.

This action, they add, needs to have the grid as the decisive factor.

According to the company's latest white paper, Navigating the Energy Transition: Pathways to Net Zero in Italy, without accelerated transmission upgrades, renewable curtailment could reach 82TWh annually by 2050—approximately 16% of projected national demand.

Even with Terna’s planned Hypergrid projects, additional reinforcements will be required to bridge the gap between renewable-rich southern regions and demand-heavy northern centres, they add.

Have you read:
Italy’s Terna announces €16.5bn investment plan guided by twin transition
Shifting the mindset: why grid resilience can’t wait

Italy’s decarbonisation

Italy aims for 53% renewable electricity consumption by 2030, 90% reduction in CO2e by 2040 and a 58 to 66% reduction in CO2e in the power sector by 2030.

However, says GE Vernova in their study, recent analyses across Italy’s energy sector warn that the country is not on track for near-term milestones. This is due to slow-growing renewables, constrained grid capacity, and permitting, which remains a bottleneck.

Additionally, the company says that by 2050 demand from electrification will increase by 60% and more than 200GW of new capacity will be required.

Italy’s net zero pathways

In their study, GE Vernova evaluates two scenarios for the country’s power sector:

In the ‘Renewable Ambition’ scenario, wind and solar capacity need to double to 90-100GW by 2030 and expand to approximately 200GW by 2050. It also calls for at least 40GW of battery energy storage, 13–17GW of combined cycle gas turbines with carbon capture, 8GW of nuclear SMRs, and urgent completion of the Hypergrid transmission projects.

This technology mix, along with some other critical permitting and regulation enablers, is a pathway that achieves both 2030 and 2050 climate targets. 

The ‘Business-as-Usual’ scenario sees a slower trajectory for renewable growth combined with heavier reliance on CCS, hydrogen-capable gas, and imports. Under this pathway, Italy may still achieve net zero by 2050 but will miss 2030, exposing the system to higher costs and greater dependency on external supply.

Additionally, says GE Vernova, the economic stakes of a slower trajectory are high; reliance on imports would increase, consumer exposure to volatile fuel costs would heighten, and Italy’s industrial competitiveness may be undermined.

Enlit on the Road: Italy
Transforming an Italian town into an energy island
Building Milan's net zero airport of the future 

GE Vernova says that, in light of these pathways, transmission upgrades are essential and a cost-efficient way of integrating the needed levels of renewable energy. Timely completion of these upgrades, they add, could save over €11 billion ($12.8 billion) in system and re-dispatch costs by 2050.

Curtailment zones with high renewable capacity, lower demand, and limited flexible generation, such as in the south of Italy, will be more vulnerable to curtailment. Without additional transmission upgrades, these zones will face significant curtailment, resulting in a loss of renewable energy and financial inefficiencies.

Commenting in a release was Jim Walsh, Vice President of GE Vernova’s Consulting Services: “2030 is Italy’s make-or-break moment. This study provides a roadmap to success: the numbers, the scenarios, and the solutions that show how Italy can still achieve its decarbonization goals, while capturing the economic and industrial benefits of the transition.”