Wind and solar combined will soon surpass global hydro generation says IEA

Global hydropower capacity growth remains stable -- driven by China, India, the ASEAN region and Africa -- although it is projected to be overtaken by solar and wind generation over the next several years, according to a report from the International Energy Agency (IEA).

This year's edition of IEA’s annual Renewables market report provides forecasts for the deployment of renewable energy technologies in electricity, transport and heat to 2030, while also exploring key challenges facing the industry and identifying barriers that are preventing faster growth.  

The Renewables 2024 report finds that the world is set to add more than 5,500GW of new renewable energy capacity between 2024 and 2030 – almost three times the increase seen between 2017 and 2023.

In the report's main case, global annual renewable capacity additions rise from 666GW in 2024 to almost 935GW in 2030. Hydropower is expected to contribute 20GW to 30GW annually over 2024-2030 as emerging and developing economies -- especially in Africa -- gradually tap into their potential.

Hydropower capacity growth in 2024-2030 is expected to be similar to 2017-2023, with over 165GW becoming operational. China’s ambition to install large-scale conventional and pumped-storage hydro systems accounts for almost 40% of forecast global expansion. While growth in China is expected to slow through 2030, it could accelerate in India, the ASEAN region and Africa. Many governments have hydropower ambitions for 2030 and large pipelines of projects under development. EU hydropower activity is also expected to rise slightly thanks to 3.3GW of pumped-storage hydropower projects in Spain and Austria. 

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Between 2017 and 2023, hydropower saw its global capacity grow by 161.2GW. In the report's main case, hydropower capacity is projected to grow another 165.4GW between 2024 and 2030. Hydropower accounted for 14% of global generation in 2023 -- which is expected to drop to 13% by 2030, largely driven by increases in wind and solar energy.

IEA also laid out several milestones it expects to see over the coming years. By the end of 2024, solar and wind generation combined are expected to surpass hydropower. By 2029, solar generation is expected to surpass hydropower and become the largest renewable power source. By 2030, wind power is expected to also surpass hydropower.

Solar PV remains the dominant technology waiting for grid connection, representing the majority of renewable capacity in advanced stages (over 60%), followed by wind (over 35%). Hydropower represents just over 1%. At the end of this decade, solar PV is set to become the largest renewable source, surpassing hydropower, which is currently the largest renewable generation source by far. 

Originally published by Sean Wolfe on hydroreview.com