Energy security must not overshadow affordability in Europe

The war in Iran has pushed oil prices above $100 a barrel and close to $120 at times, as fears grow that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil normally flows, could affect global supply.

The situation has already prompted emergency discussions, as it should, among G7 finance ministers on the economic impact and the possibility of coordinated releases from strategic petroleum reserves.

In Europe, the immediate response from policymakers has been measured. Meetings of the European Commission’s Energy Union Task Force and the Gas and Oil Coordination Groups have confirmed that there are currently no immediate risks to the EU’s security of supply.

Gas storage levels remain stable, and oil stocks are considered sufficient. In other words, Europe is better prepared than it once was to deal with external shocks.

This is no coincidence, as we seem to learn from our past mistakes as a Union. Over the past few years, the EU has taken decisive steps to strengthen its energy resilience.

Secure system

The REPowerEU strategy, which sets the path toward phasing out Russian gas and oil imports by 2027, reflects the Union’s determination to reduce geopolitical dependence and build a more secure energy system following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Hopefully the Clean Energy Investment Strategy, set for official publishing this week, will be another positive step.

But security of supply is only one side of the energy equation. The other is affordability.

Even before the latest tensions in the Middle East, millions of Europeans were struggling to cope with energy costs. According to Eurostat, in 2024, 9.2% of the EU population could not afford to keep their homes adequately warm.

In several Member States, including Bulgaria and Greece, the figure approached one in five households. These numbers illustrate that the energy transition is not only a technological or geopolitical challenge, but also a social one.

Structural issue

The current volatility in oil and gas markets highlights a structural issue that Europe continues to grapple with: its exposure to global fossil fuel price fluctuations. Gas still represents around 17% of electricity generation in the EU in 2025, with some countries significantly more dependent than others.

And of course, because electricity prices are often linked to gas prices, geopolitical tensions can quickly translate into higher energy bills. Something nobody wants, but even more so Eastern and Southeastern households.

For this reason, one could argue that the most effective way to strengthen Europe’s energy security is not simply to diversify fossil fuel imports, but to reduce reliance on them altogether.

As Tara Connolly, Programme Lead with Beyond Fossil Fuels, put it: “For the second time in less than five years, Europe's extreme vulnerability to global gas markets has been laid bare. Seeking alternative gas suppliers is a distraction from the real solutions. Only by ramping up investments in homegrown renewable energy and energy savings can Europe get off the fossil fuel rollercoaster and get electricity prices under control.”

Fair and inclusive

Europe’s policy direction already reflects many of these priorities. The challenge now is to accelerate their implementation while ensuring that the transition remains fair and inclusive.

Geopolitical crises will continue to shape energy markets. But the long-term solution lies closer to home: building an energy system that is cleaner, more flexible and less exposed to the volatility of global fossil fuel markets. And all that, while ensuring that energy security also means energy affordability for European citizens.

After all, the implied 'social contract' (J.J.Rousseau 1762) that the commission has signed is with the citizens of the Union. You know, those that are required to pay the electricity bills.