How hourly renewables will reshape utility risk and revenue

The proposed GHG Protocol Scope 2 updates (now in public consultation until January 31) point in one direction: carbon-free electricity claims will soon need to demonstrate when and where power was actually consumed. 

For utilities, this shift matters as the focus moves from annual averages to the specific hours that shape both carbon impact and financial risk.

The regulatory change is happening just as corporate demand approaches a hard milestone in 2030. RE100 members must reach 60% renewable electricity by that year, and thousands of companies with science-based targets face the same deadline. The volume of credible, time-specific clean power required by 2030 will rise sharply.

The result is simple: the shape of the load is what matters now. Once buyers must prove clean supply hour by hour, they will expect utilities to do the same. This is where risk and revenue shift next – into the hours where the grid is under the most pressure.

Hourly matching

Today the market treats each Energy Attribute Certificate (EAC, equalling one megawatt-hour) as the same, whether it’s linked to the energy produced at noon in summer or at 9pm in winter. 

In reality, the carbon value and the system value are completely different. Hourly matching, also known as 24/7 carbon-free energy or Granular Accounting, corrects that mismatch. 

This creates room for new products. Storage-backed power purchase agreements (PPAs), hybrid structures, and baseload contracts become easier to justify. Such structures reward output in hours when the grid is tight rather than saturated, reducing curtailment and making the market more fair and transparent. 

AI energy demand 

Within this broader picture, alongside electrification, we are observing a surge of AI-driven data centre energy demand. A sustained rise in data-centre demand of the scale projected by Ember – roughly +140 TWh by 2035 – would be material for European power markets. Tech is no longer just a user of electricity, it’s driving the energy revolution.  

Data centres’ flat, 24-hour load stresses nighttime and winter hours – the periods of scarce renewable generation. More load in these hours means a tighter market unless flexibility expands at the same rate.

Here utilities face practical constraints. Some regions can add solar and storage quickly, especially where there is spare grid capacity. But across Europe, it is unlikely that build-out will meet AI-driven demand over the next three to five years without major acceleration. Connection queues in some markets already exceed three years. New transmission can take four to eight years to build. Grid bottlenecks remain the binding constraint.

Utilities feel the pressure

These pressures will not only affect hyperscalers. All power-intensive industries will feel the cost impact in nodes where capacity is scarce. Utilities sit at the centre of this shift. They balance the system, manage retail books, structure PPAs and trade in the same hourly markets where data centres will soon need verifiable clean supply. 

The pressure lands with utilities first because the physical system does not adjust on annual cycles – it adjusts by the hour.

Once annual certificates lose credibility for flat-load consumers, utilities will need to cover the hours that matter most: nighttime, winter, and periods of low renewable output. This changes the mix of assets required to keep the grid reliable – for example, storage becomes essential rather than an optional addition. 

The focus is on serving the hours where load increases fastest and renewable supply is weakest, as that is where risk and revenue move.

This shift might also introduce a new pricing reality: not all EACs will hold the same value. The market will start to recognise the difference between periods of high and low supply and the need for more dynamic hourly pricing, one of the things we are currently working on. Utilities may see an uplift on standard certificate prices that would make it worthwhile to structure products around EACs generated in scarce to source hours.  

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Hourly alignment 

As the regulatory frameworks evolve, both corporate buyers and utilities are working to budget the renewable sourcing that matches the new expectations. 

The cost of doing 100% hourly matching decreases significantly with demand response, a study from TU Berlin finds, as 24/7 hourly matching strategies create a strong cost incentive to have flexibility in demand. 

Another study by Eurelectric and Pexapark showed that a combination of wind and solar contracts can increase hourly matching to around 75% in Finland and over 60% in Germany. 

Another angle to take into account for buyers is financial hedging. Electricity markets settle hourly, not annually. If the supply only covers certain hours – for example, solar in the middle of the day – the complete hedge is achieved in those hours only. 

In uncovered hours, such buyer would have to source electricity at spot prices, which brings exposure to market volatility. In excess hours, they may need to sell back into the market, often at low or negative prices.

This is why many buyers have seen unexpected losses in recent years – a contract that looks safe on an annual basis can perform poorly when analysed hour by hour. Better hourly matching means fewer unhedged hours, less exposure to volatility, and more stable, predictable cost outcomes. The same products that reduce volatility risk – hybrid PPAs, baseload-style structures, storage-backed offers – also strengthen Scope 2 claims. 

Practical steps

Utilities do not need to wait for the GHGP Scope 2 update to take effect. The shift is already visible in PPA structures, corporate RfPs and data centre procurement briefs. 

Non-profit initiatives like Matched Energy in the UK make the shift to hourly matched portfolios even more visible and transparent. The impactful first steps could be:

Map the shape of your existing portfolio: You cannot act on what you cannot see. Identify the hours that drive stress. Those hours will define future revenue and flexibility needs.

Separate spatial from temporal gaps: Get the location right first. Then address the hours where load and renewables fall out of sync.

Build flexible supply products: Hybrid PPAs and storage-backed structures will be central to how corporates buy in the next decade.

Align carbon, hedging and flexibility: Treat these as one problem. The hours that drive carbon impact are the same hours that drive financial exposure. One solution can address both.

By 2030, thousands of corporate buyers face hard deadlines linked to RE100 and science-based targets. They will need credible, hour-specific clean electricity in volumes that match real load, in line with policy and voluntary initiatives across Europe. 

Utilities that match their portfolios to the clock, not the annual average, will be best placed to serve the next wave of corporate demand and manage risk as AI-driven electricity load grows.

About the author 

Juan Pablo Cerda is chief executive and co-founder of Renewabl. His career spans energy trading and clean energy procurement roles at BP, Shell, ED&F Man and Schneider Electric, as well as founding Zeigo. He now works with major corporates and data centres on more transparent Scope 2 accounting and hourly-matched PPAs.